We’ve analysed the movements in public and community housing from 2006 and 2021 and found some powerful trends:
- Rich areas have less public housing
The highest income local government areas (LGAs) tend to have the highest proportion of privately owned dwellings. In affluent areas, where the gap between the underclass and their residents is the greatest, they fight harder to keep them out of their area. Also, land is obviously more expensive in these areas, so the government can house fewer people for the money than cheaper areas.
- Public housing is declining everywhere, especially in rich areas.
The average LGA lost 30% of its public housing between 2006 and 2021 but struggling housing-heavy municipalities like Fairfeld and Canterbury-Bankstown lost the least (12% and 21% respectively). On the other hand, Ku-ring Gai and Wollahara had only 1 in 200 dwellings government owned in 2006. By 2021, it was only 1 in 330.
This is not just because there are more private dwellings in Sydney. In real terms the average LGA lost 17.8% of its public housing dwellings.
- Public housing is getting more spread out throughout the city.
Overall, larger estates are being diluted and LGAs are getting more similar levels of public housing. The biggest fall was in the Sydney CBD: 10.1% to 5.9% over the 15 year period.
% Public and Community Housing by Local Government Area 2006-2021
Every single suburb’s public housing figure is available here to subscribers, along with a zoomable Sydney-wide heat map.
Does this really matter?
None of the above should mean you completely avoid any of these LGAs for buying a property. It just means you have to do your research. Our analysis shows though that, from the point of view of investors, home owners and tenants, what really matters is public housing within 100-200 metres of your property. Merely having public housing in your local government area or even the other side of the suburb does not affect your capital growth and in most cases not your lifestyle either. To get pocket level public housing, as well as other risk factors like bushfire, mobile blackspots, high turnover rates and growth on a hyperlocal pocket level, see our suburb reports.
